It does not look as if Iraq will emerge from this bloody conflict as a sovereign country in it's present form. A partitioned Iraq or a country left to the chaos of a civil war are the two most probable outcomes of the invasion of 2003. 
Dividing itself into separate countries, as the former Yugoslavia did, is a possibility, however a stumbling block to this action would be the status of the central section, where most of the fighting is taking place. It is unlikely that any of Iraq's six neighboring countries would annex any of the country. The responsibilities of security would be too undesirable. Unfortunately and tragically the Shakespearian quote,"Cry Havoc and let loose the dogs of war" was never more fitting.
General Abizaid, the head of U.S. Central Command in the Mideast believes that the people of Iraq will realize that the militias are the death of Iraq and that the Iraqi army is the salvation of Iraq. That the people will unite behind the army and defeat the militias and the insurgents is the ultimate outcome.
I believe the Iraqis are living under such terror that they are interested in their own survival, with the security of their immediate surroundings, their block and their neighborhood their main concern. The concept of a united nation is not their primary care. The people of Iraq did not act as a cohesive group to overthrow a dictatorship and thus lack even the primary foundation for forming a government to rule the fractious population.
Add to this the sectarian differences, the outside influences pulling them in different directions and the disproportionate distribution of oil in the country. Large oil deposits are found in the Kurdish controlled north and the Shiite controlled south, with the Sunni controlled middle left out in the cold.
An oil revenue sharing system would be the only way that a partitioned Iraq could prosper, however this would be extremely difficult to attain and sustain. I hope that I am wrong and that a peace can be brokered.